Ukrainian-Russian War: Why Ukraine Didn’t Attack Russia and Other Questions

Steve Rosenberg, editor in Moscow

After the initial setback, Russian troops appeared to be making progress in eastern Ukraine. But what is Moscow’s goal? If Russia occupies all of Donetsk and Luhansk, will the Kremlin stop or continue its advance to other areas?

Even if Russia decides to stop, there is no guarantee that it will be a permanent cessation of hostilities. They say leopards don’t change their spots…I don’t think the president of Russia either.

In his speeches and articles, Vladimir Putin made it clear that he does not see Ukraine as a sovereign state, but rather as a region historically included in Moscow’s orbit.

After launching a “special military operation”, the head of the Kremlin apparently expected the kyiv government to fall quickly. He even called for the Ukrainian military to rise up and overthrow the Ukrainian leadership. This is not the case.

But that doesn’t mean Vladimir Putin has given up trying to force Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence, even in the face of Western sanctions.

Sarah Rainsford, Eastern Europe Correspondent

This is a war that Ukraine did not choose and did not start. It is defensive in nature: the country is fighting for its right to exist against an all-out Russian onslaught.

I don’t think you can underestimate what Ukraine has to pay to prevent Russia from taking kyiv, and now trying to stop the advance of Russian troops into Donbass.

Openly and deliberately targeting Russia itself would be a major escalation at a time when Ukraine is struggling to maintain a defensive line.

Kyiv continues to demand more weapons from the West. But the United States has recently made clear that the long-range missiles it will supply are not intended to strike Russian territory: it fears escalation.

Recall that the West deemed it too risky to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine when Kyiv had been calling for it all along. As for Ukraine, allegedly targeting Russian civilians? It would be a war crime.

Sarah Rainsford, Eastern Europe Correspondent

Yes, although it is difficult to know the magnitude. The fact is that Russia has yet to officially declare war: Vladimir Putin insists on calling his invasion a “special operation,” meaning professional soldiers can refuse to participate. They can be fired, but they can’t – or shouldn’t – be tried.

Still, it takes guts to do it. From my own reports on Ukraine, I know that many of the Russian troops deployed at the outset of the invasion were young and inexperienced; some didn’t know they were going to war, others thought they would take Kyiv within days, without a fight.

But evidence of fierce fighting and heavy casualties is everywhere, including in the refrigerated train cars I’ve seen piled with dead Russian soldiers. I am therefore not surprised that some people refuse to go to war, especially now that they have seen for themselves that Ukraine does not want to be “liberated”. But we saw no reports of mass desertion.

Paul Adams, diplomatic correspondent

There are many complicated reasons for this.

First, NATO is not directly involved in the conflict and wants to keep it that way.

Second, the Montreux Convention, which regulates maritime access to the Black Sea, gives Turkey the right to allow non-Black Sea countries to enter and leave via the Bosphorus.

Turkey has closer relations with Moscow than almost any other NATO member (except Hungary) and wants to be seen as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Any action aimed at forcibly breaking the Russian blockade of Odessa would inevitably be perceived by Moscow as hostile.

The UK and Lithuania recently indicated they wanted a “coalition of wishes” formed to protect commercial shipments going in and out of Odesa, to enable Ukraine to export worldwide the agricultural products it desperately needs, particularly cereals. . But that plan has not materialized.

Meanwhile, Denmark’s decision to supply Ukraine with American-made Harpoon missiles, combined with Ukraine’s Neptune system (which was responsible for the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet), means that, for now, Odessa is in no danger of being attacked from the sea.

Steve Rosenberg, editor in Moscow

Talks between Russia and Ukraine started shortly after the Russian invasion. There were several rounds of negotiations, but none led to any agreement.

For now, the discussion is over. Both sides blamed each other for this. But remember that if Russian troops don’t attack Ukraine, a truce is not needed!

Possible developments on the battlefield will determine when, how and in what form negotiations will proceed.

This week, Turkish President Erdogan spoke by phone with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts and offered to mediate in the dispute.

Russia’s current military goal appears to be to seize and occupy (or “liberate”, as the Russians call it) the entire territory of the Donbass. Moscow may not be ready for a ceasefire until it does.

Paul Adams, diplomatic correspondent

Are Ukraine’s Western supporters afraid or just being cautious?

Some, such as the Baltic republics, have expressed frustration at what they see as the West’s reluctance to give Ukraine everything it needs.

But for all of Russia’s military shortcomings – which have been highly exposed in more than three months of an often botched campaign – Russia still has plenty of nuclear weapons at its disposal.

Western officials continue to believe that Moscow is unlikely to resort to such an apocalypse option, but they cannot simply ignore the danger.

And while some, including UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, seem happy to talk about expelling Russian troops from across Ukraine, others think a return to the situation that occurred on the morning of February 24 is a more likely and achievable scenario.

By doing so, Russia will retain control of the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014, as well as most of eastern Donbas.

Steve Rosenberg, editor in Moscow

Given the highly secretive nature of Kremlin politics, it’s only natural that there will be a lot of rumors and speculation about the man at the top. After all, it is Putin who makes all the important decisions in this country.

So… Is Vladimir Putin terminally ill? Were knives sharpened in anticipation of a “palace coup”? Is the oligarchy planning to overthrow the president?

I suspect President Putin’s criticism is wishful thinking. Of course, not everyone in the Kremlin’s corridors of power will be pleased with what Russia is doing in Ukraine and the international sanctions Moscow is imposing on itself.

But, so far, there has been no hint of an anti-Putin coup, including among the oligarchs, whose wings the Kremlin has long since clipped.

But if you were Vladimir Putin, would you take the risk? This could explain why the head of the Russian National Guard is a former bodyguard for Putin. According to Russian media, the same goes for Russia’s new emergency minister, who was promoted last week.