Inflation soared to an average of 5.2% over 2022 in France, according to INSEE
National statisticians published their final estimates of inflation for the past year early Friday. In 2021, not to exceed 1.6%.
Inflation will indeed reach record highs in 2022. This Friday morning, INSEE indicated that price increases have averaged 5.2% over the last twelve months, after 1.6% in 2021. year: in December alone, inflation fell slightly to 5.9% for one year, while in November 2022 it is estimated at 6.2%. inflation in December 2022 (5.9%) and the annual average for 2022 (5.2%).
Still, the levels recorded throughout the year were the highest they had been in… forty years. Spread through the economy, soaring prices are affecting all of France, but some more than others, according to INSEE: last year, “households whose reference was over 60 years experienced the highest price increase (+5.8%). Those whose referrals were under 30 years experienced the smallest increase (+4.2%)“, analysis of national statisticians. Likewise, homeowners were hit harder by inflation than renters, and households onfirst decile standard of living» experienced slightly above average inflation, around 0.3 percentage point. The differences are explained by the consumption structure, and lifestyle of each.
Over the past year as a whole,rising inflation resulted from accelerating energy (+23.1% after 10.5% in 2021) and food (+6.8% after +0.6%) prices, and to a lesser extent manufactured goods and services, which grew by 3%“, describes Insee. Another indicator, core inflation, which excludes temporary price variations to focus on deep inflationary trends, has also not escaped a very sharp increase, increasing from an average of 1.1% over 2021 to 3.9% in 2022.
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The year that just ended was very volatile in terms of inflation: prices jumped almost continuously between July 2021 and July 2022, with a sharp acceleration in the first half of the year, generated by a boom in energy prices. The second half of the year was more mixed: a slowdown at the start of the school year, then a peak in October, followed by a lull into December.
Inflation is expected to increase in early 2023
Disappearance of rebates on pumps provided by the State and TotalEnergies, reduction of shield tariffs for gas and electricity… The first months of 2023 will be marked by new increases in energy prices. What weighed on the budgets of economic actors, even though it is only natural that fuel prices soared in early January, following the removal of price discounts. In its latest macroeconomic projections, published in December, the Banque de France writes to predict a peak in inflation “in the first semester», between 7% and 8%. For its part, INSEE relies on peaks “7% for one year in January and February“, then supported by rising prices of tobacco and food products.
However, this acceleration should be temporary, as energy prices are well below the record levels observed in recent months. Barring any surprises, 2023 will be a year of a gradual slowdown in price increases, according to experts. Projections also agree on a diminishing weight of energy in rising prices, while food, services and manufactured goods have taken over the overall indicator.
The Banque de France thus expects “decline, gradual but clear, for the remainder of the year“, banking with an inflation rate of around 4% at the end of the year in France. For national statisticians, the price of entry”gradually recede“, after the first trimester, until reaching “around +5.5% in June“. The European Commission, for its part, expects inflation to be set at 4.4% for Paris this year.
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The same observation for the ECB: “HICP inflation is expected to remain very strong over the coming months before moderating into 2023, driven by energy-related floor effects and easing upstream tensions, and supported by policy measures being taken by public authorities“, proceed with caution Central Bank analysts. In the eurozone, the rate will drop below the 4% mark by the end of the year. As in 2022, France will be one of the countries least affected by the price hike. At a cost to public finances.